Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 31.902561 34.437650 37.205674 40.476631 44.268618 48.567243 53.869217
2025-07-13 29.061655 32.617430 36.779459 42.106217 48.892354 57.477342 69.575386
2025-07-20 26.398786 30.294731 35.044075 41.428221 50.077739 61.894242 80.337944
2025-07-27 25.532908 29.930248 35.507089 43.384919 54.777769 71.749981 101.781338
2025-08-03 24.446375 29.118106 35.224734 44.196085 57.889027 79.897786 123.831634
2025-08-10 23.327169 28.132402 34.564825 44.319581 59.897195 86.674585 146.721377
2025-08-17 21.995005 26.744884 33.205128 43.216405 59.718914 89.514588 162.756543
2025-08-24 20.825110 25.494020 31.928219 42.081989 59.281107 91.717869 178.697718
2025-08-31 20.560613 25.467436 32.387185 43.667453 63.754009 104.947745 237.800408
2025-09-07 19.645919 24.464395 31.331572 42.696602 63.423660 107.751368 266.163918
2025-09-14 18.860458 23.603082 30.429186 41.888971 63.275274 110.955306 301.169452
2025-09-21 17.888568 22.429297 28.989595 40.064174 60.918319 108.190256 305.759403
2025-09-28 16.902402 21.301815 27.723586 38.729447 59.976816 110.459465 353.443369
2025-10-05 16.623706 21.204812 28.056697 40.236717 65.257493 132.600809 649.396499
2025-10-12 15.921110 20.428936 27.252877 39.608867 65.827253 141.495408 969.656585
2025-10-19 15.773008 20.470342 27.749324 41.419454 72.421965 176.931268 5308.861534
2025-10-26 15.433722 20.193579 27.695058 42.168745 76.722866 209.773806 NaN
2025-11-02 15.012660 19.762909 27.345437 42.282755 79.430063 240.022013 NaN
2025-11-09 14.438427 19.062162 26.487850 41.263699 78.757302 251.028307 NaN
2025-11-16 13.901566 18.397297 25.653875 40.214314 77.794623 259.968518 NaN
2025-11-23 13.796124 18.412184 25.997218 41.680523 84.785399 344.828790 NaN
2025-11-30 13.344509 17.848669 25.284612 40.783044 84.120111 363.576787 NaN
2025-12-07 12.943137 17.351414 24.664682 40.035615 83.809196 387.901240 NaN